We're all familiar with the cost of delay. With big highway projects, small percentage increases often amount to millions of dollars. A 24 percent increase, (see update below) however, hits the threshold requiring substantial change in existing plans. The Seattle Times explains what happened:
Cement prices spiked. Steel prices rose, largely because of
competition from new skyscrapers and roads in China. A flurry of
megaprojects, and the post-hurricane reconstruction of New Orleans,
triggered a labor shortage that may continue for years.
The Washington State Department of Transportation recently
substituted a more-realistic inflation rate of about 3.5 percent for
its previous figure of about 2.4 percent, which outside experts had
challenged as too low.
The new figures account for more environmental work, notably at
Highway 2 in Everett, where road trestles cross the wetlands of Ebey
Island, and at the new "Cross-Base Highway" in Pierce County.
Many projects on the books will be scaled back, some dramatically. More votes on transportation finance are planned for this year.
MORE: The P-I has an op-ed today that helps explain why so little gets done quickly.
Gregoire had an opportunity to refute the freeway-building mantra by
demanding a more fiscally and environmentally sound strategy for moving people
through downtown. She could have put the public's health ahead of politics and
told us the truth: Highways have fouled and impoverished this country's urban
environments, choked Puget Sound with pollution and bankrupted government.
How refreshing had she met the assertion by the state Department of
Transportation that demand for automobile capacity will continue to increase
with this challenge: "We can't afford more highway lanes. They're burdening
taxpayers and poisoning the planet. You transportation experts, tell me how to
reduce car trips."
And why we're waiting, costs and congestion increase and commerce leaves.
UPDATE: The Times corrected a math error this morning (1/3/07). The news is worse than we thought:
Projected costs for major projects have risen 31 percent above earlier estimates, not 24 percent as reported in the paper.
No cheap shots about the WASL math test here. This stuff happens. A 24% boost in costs was bad enough. But 31 percent! Astonishing.
MORE: The News Tribune reported last month on the impact in Pierce County. It's the same story -
higher costs and extended completion dates - but I had missed this:
Blame China, state transportation planners say.
The surging price of oil and steel account for part of the higher cost
estimates, and many economists point to China’s rapid development and
thirst for both materials as a big factor in driving up those commodity
prices. For Washington, that means higher prices for asphalt and all
the steel components that are used to build bridges and freeway
overpasses.
Another globalization challenge.