Would San Francisco's iconic Golden Gate Bridge even exist today if we had to build it again?
That's the challenge put forward by Morry Markowitz, group director for external affairs for the U.S. Chamber, as a part of Thursday's opening session on energy issues. The discussion was a continuation of the U.S. Chamber's Regional Government Affairs Conference in San Francisco.
Major infrastructure projects like the Golden Gate Bridge or state highway systems would be "very difficult to replicate today" according to Markowitz, given permitting and legal challenges at local, state and federal levels -- a troublesome thought given that the U.S. needs to invest heavily in both new sources of energy and new means of transmitting it.
Demand for electricity is expected to increase 27 percent by 2030, Markowitz said, but "you don't get to build generation plants and other infrastructure in two or even 10 years" these days. And inefficient, older U.S. plants need to be replaced, an effort that will likely cost more than $400 billion.
So what about renewables -- like windmills and solar panels?
"Even though the wind is free, the windmills are not -- these are very expensive renewables," said Markowitz. "If you look at the best places for wind or sun -- like the Mojave Desert -- we need to build transmission lines to bring that electricity over. Unfortunately, nature doesn't work 24/7, so we need alternatives."
Our solution to the energy challenges looming in the not-too-distant-future will likely require a blend of known-technologies (like coal and natural gas) and new solutions yet to be identified or fully developed, said Markowitz. When electricity first emerged in the 1900s, our goal as a country was to make sure everyone had it, he said. Then, in the middle of the 20th century, the issue shifted to making it more affordable. Today's energy challenge, Markowitz said, is to make it more environmentally friendly.
Denise McCourt, industry relations director for the American Petroleum Industry, suggested the U.S. focus more on energy security than total energy independence. It's not just the fact that the U.S. can get resources from other countries (like Canada, the U.S.'s largest supplier of imported oil in 2008), McCourt said. We have to show that we can develop our own.
"Even as alternative fuels continue to grow, oil, natural gas, and coal will still have an important role in our future," said McCourt. "We have to be realistic about the timeline for new resource development."
"People are looking for reliability and a more robust system," said Markowitz, "but it's not going to come for free."
Here are some of the other noteworthy factoids on energy from today's session:
- CO2 emissions in the U.S. are actually flat-lining, but the rest of the world's emissions are increasing at a rate of 300 percent, "and they want a free pass" on climate change restrictions (Source: Bill Kovacs, senior vice president of environmental, technology and regulatory affairs for the U.S. Chamber)
- In the next 50 to 100 years, we have to find 50 to 100 times the energy resources but in non-fossil fuel forms to meet growing demand. (Kovacs)
- 240 gigawatts of new capacity will be needed by 2030 (Markowitz/Energy Information Administration)
- The U.S. is the third largest world crude oil provider behind Saudi Arabia and Russia (McCourt)
- 116.4 billion barrels of oil is enough to power more than 65 million cars for 60 years. (McCourt)
- 650.trillion cubic feet is enough natural gas to heat 60 million homes for 160 years (McCourt)
