Michael Parks, editor and publisher of Marple's Northwest Business Letter, delivered an upbeat forecast Wednesday to an audience AWB members, saying: "I want you to go away with a sense of optimisim about what's coming for Washington's economy.
"I see better times ahead for Washington's economy," Parks said during the second day of AWB's 20th annual Policy Summit.
He came loaded with evidence: Rising gross domestic product, low inventories that will need to be replenished, rising wages and salary increase in July -- for the first time in a year -- and a relatively weak dollar, which aids Washington exports.
He even cited a recent Wall Street Journal article noting that steep declines tend to be followed by brisk recoveries.
Dr. Arun Raha, the state's chief economist, was likewise optimistic in a separate address, but he tempered his speech with healthy doses of caution.
Raha repeated his earlier statement that the recession is over in Washington and the rest of the country, but he stuck by his prediction for a slow recovery.
Consumers are the big wildcard, Raha said. "If consumer spending doesn't come back, we risk a double-dip recession."
Other highlights from Parks and Raha:
- Parks noted that it took four years bring back the jobs lost during the 2001 recession, and it will likely take longer to recover from this recession.
- Parks said you would be crazy to not worry about Boeing and its "flirtation with a right-to-work" state, referring to South Carolina. On the bright side, Washington is less "exposed" to the aerospace industry than any other time in recent memory. "These are key jobs, it would be a terrible thing if they went away, but we are less exposed," Parks said.
- Raha noted that the global economy is going through a synchronized recovery, something he did not expect to see.
- The manufacturing sector is seeing a rebound, Raha said.
- Employment growth always lags behind an economic recovery, Raha said.
- Raha does not expect to see a growth in non-residential construction until the second half of 2011.
- Recessions breed innovation. Raha expects that a company started during the latest recession will grow into a household name in years to come.
