Olympia Business Watch

Putting the Financial Crisis in Political Context

Michael Barone places the "financial ructions" of the day in historical and political context in a brilliant and brief column published yesterday, before the debacle on the House floor.

You can sum up much of 20th century history by saying that in the 1930s Americans decided that markets didn't work and government did, and that in the 1970s Americans decided that government didn't work and markets did.

The protracted and painful experiences of those decades changed basic public attitudes on the balance between government and markets, between regulation and enterprise, between government aid programs and self-reliance. The breadlines and depression of the 1930s moved Americans in one direction; the gas lines and stagflation of the 1970s moved them in the other.

Which raises the question of whether the financial ructions of 2007-08 (09?) will move them back again.

He goes on to examine the passage of time has blunted collective memory, setting the stage for a pendular swing back to the 30s. Here's what's at stake.

Reviewing the long course of history, I think it's obvious that market capitalism, together with the rule of law, hard currency and regulations that ensure transparency and accountability, has produced bounteous growth and the resources to address problems that require government action, like defending the nation and protecting the environment.

Read the whole thing.

Catch the Debates on TVW!

AWB was fortunate to have the support of TVW during last week's 19th Annual Policy Summit at Semiahmoo. Their staff is in the process of adding them to their Web site for viewing online or on TV. Here's the current programming line-up:

• Tuesday, September 30^th: OSPI debate (7:45 p.m. and 10:45 p.m.)
• Wednesday, October 1^st: OSPI debate (1:45 a.m., 7:45 a.m. and 1:45 p.m.); Gregoire/Rossi debate (7 p.m.)
• Friday, October 3^rd:  AG debate (9 p.m.)
• Saturday, October 4^th:  OSPI debate (7:45 p.m.); Gregoire/Rossi debate (11 p.m.)
• Sunday, October 5th: OSPI debate (7:45 a.m.) 

Besides the debates, here are other air dates/times of other AWB Policy Summit coverage: 

• Tuesday, September 30^th: “Local Political Climate” panel (8:45 p.m.)
• Thursday, October 2^nd:  Ron Brownstein presentation (9:30 p.m.)
• Saturday, October 4^th:  “Local Political Climate” panel (8:45 p.m.)
• Sunday, October 5^th:  Ron Brownstein presentation (10:30 p.m.)

Thanks again to TVW and their staff for support of this event.

Updates on Suspending Paid Family Leave

Thursday night at the AWB-sponsored gubernatorial debate, Governor Gregoire surprised some folks by announcing the suspension of the state's troubled paid family leave program due to budget problems.  We noted that announcement is sensible but needs some fleshing out because, ultimately, it takes the Legislature to suspend the program.

The Olympian's Adam Wilson did just that with this blog post and a story in today's print edition.  The Washington Policy Center's Carl Gipson got in touch with the Governor's office and posts some thoughts here.   

The gist is that "suspending" the program means mothballing the computer system that was under development to handle benefit checks should the program ever get funded in anticipation of its October 1, 2009 start date.   

That's less than actually asking the Legislature to formally suspend the program, but given the practicalities of the situation, it's a decision that makes that scenario seem inevitable. 

Gregoire-Rossi Debate Telecast, Sunday Night, 6 p.m. on TVW

Tune into TVW on Sunday (Sept. 28) for the telecast of the gubernatorial debate between Dino Rossi and Chris Gregoire from the Association of Washington Business Policy Summit at Semiahmoo.  It will be telecast at 6 p.m.  Go to TVW.org for a listing of the times of the re-telecast.

Gregoire and Rossi went toe-to-toe over the budget, taxes and a range of other issues.  Moderator David Postman, former political writer for the Seattle Times, asked the candidates questions submitted from Association of Washington Business members from across the state.   Most of the questions were submitted by very small business owners from Spokane to Vancouver to Bellingham.

AWB also hosted debates for Washington's attorney general, superintendent of public instruction and public lands commissioner. To find out when those debates will be telecast, consult TVW's program guide.

Gov. Gregoire: Suspend Paid Family Leave?

For business policy enthusiasts, one new tidbit from tonight's gubernatorial debate at AWB's Policy Summit:  Governor Gregoire's indication that the state would suspend its so-far unfunded, unimplemented, second-in-the-country paid family leave program in the face of looming budget problems.

Rich Roessler at the Spokesman reported "Gregoire also said Thursday that the state will not be funding a paid family leave program for new parents, at least for now."  The AP's Curt Woodward also noted the Governor "revealed she had suspended plans to roll out a paid family leave program, a priority for Democratic lawmakers."

For those of us following the issue, that was news.  But the pledge to "suspend" the program needs some more fleshing out.  It's now state law that beginning October 1, 2009, benefits are payable to eligible individuals on a qualifying paid family leave.  If that entitlement remains on the books unamended or unrepealed, presumably a class of individuals will have a legal claim against the state for benefits starting in October. 

So "suspending" the program isn't something that can be accomplished merely by not funding it in the budget -- although that's a start.  It'll take a bill to amend or repeal the effectiveness date from the original 2007 legislation.  So really, it's the Legislature that will decide whether or not to suspend the program.  But faced with no viable source of funds for its benefits or administration, that's a responsible plan.   

The Main Event: Gregoire v. Rossi... again.

We are at fire code tonight in the Semi-Ah-Moo Ballroom as we eagerly anticipate this hotly contested race. There are so many angles to ponder. How many times will Gov. Gregoire say "George Bush?" How many times will Dino say "fiscally conservative with a social conscientious?" It is all going to be one cracker of a night. Stay tuned!

6:45: T-minus 45 minutes. Governor Gregoire and Rossi are just settling into a dinner.  Four years ago at the AWB debate, I really felt that Gov. Gregoire really took it to Rossi. However with the debate on last Sunday being so combative, this should be really interesting.

Also, here is the link to when the debate will be shown on TVW. The first two showing will be on Saturday, September 28th at both 6 AM and 6 PM.

7:15: T-minus 15 minutes. A few predictions: 1) Lewis Hamilton will win in Singapore this Sunday. The McLaren chassis rides the kerbs of a street track better. 2) Ferrari will win the constructors championship. 3) There will be no recount this year in the election. I really get the feeling that one way or another, there is going to be a very definitive result. ((Sorry, I am killing time reading my F1 Racing Magazine.))

I am reminded of something said earlier today in the local press panel discussing the race, stating the irony that both gubernatorial candidates have jumped on the Obama change bandwagon. How both have jumped on this populous train has been interesting. Gov. Gregoire is catching on the bandwagon with a popular presidential candidate of her party that promises change on a national scale. Meanwhile, Rossi is jumping the idea and semantics of "change" by promising a new way of government in the local arena. How this plays out is yet to be seen.

7:25: T-minus 5 minutes: Tonight is actually a little bit bitter sweet. David Postman in his final act as apart of the fourth estate will be officiating tonight’s debate. Over the years when I come to the office, he was always one of the first local writers I would read. His loss from the local media is a sad one. If anything, I hope he enjoys his new job working for Paul Allen's Vulcan Development Group. His humor and insight will be sorely missed from The Seattle Times.

7:40: AND WE... ARE.... DEBATING!

7:50: After some light sparing, they get into Growth Management, Climate Change, and Transportation. Both criticize each other of plagiarizing each others plans for tax incentives.

Before you know it, it's time for the candidates to ask each other a question. Gregoire plays the George Bush card blaiming all the nations' ills on the man and asks Rossi what is the difference between he and Bush. Rossi only indicated that he would veto a lot more spending bills and jokes it off that George Bush is not running for Governor. Rossi asks of Governor Gregore about the budget. Gregoire makes fun of Rossi for not awnsering her question. Gregoire states that her spending has been investments that are worth doing and will grow the economy.

8:00: Now a question at the heart of the matter; at least for me. What will the candidates do to about the projected budget shortfall. Dino awnser first that he will re-insitiute the Priorities of Government. Gov. Gregoire states that she will continue the "investments" she has made with her state spending that will grow the economy. She will too insitute the Priorities of Government. Also, she claims that we don't have a budget deficit, blaiming Rossi for a budget problem when she came in.

8:05: Gov. Gregoire claims that Rossi is going againist the people who voted in the taxes by opposing the gas taxes passed by and the "estate tax" by the voters. Rossi blame Gov. Gergoire for losing the court cases as AG that cost the state half a billion dollars before she became Governor.

8:10: In regards of fees. Rossi states that he will bring in new faces to Olympia to lower fees and run state agencies. Gov. Gregoire claims that Rossi raise fees when he was in the Senate on the sick and elderly.

8:15: A question about the Streamlined Sales Tax (SST). Gov. Gregoire states that we need the SST in order to protect "brick and mortar business in main street Washington." Rossi states that this tax is just another example of government taking from business's back pocket.

8:20: Now a question about the minimum wage. Rossi supports a training wage and slowing down the rate at which the wage grows. Gov. Gregoire states that no one is getting rich off the minimum wage.

8:30: Now for something completely different; Transportation. Gregoire touts that her transportation projects are on time, on budget, and moving forward. Rossi states that the Governor has no plan to move forward with. Rossi states that we can pay for a new viaduct with leasing the land and bonds.

Now heath care. Rossi wants to bring more competition in the health care. Gov. Gregoire say the populations is scared of losing their health care. She is touting her child health care plan and others. She take a swipe; "He wants to deregulate health care, ask Wall Street how that has worked in the finiancial markets."

Closing Remarks: Gov. Gregoire states that America is struggling and she is one to led Washington state forward. She states that she will continue "investments" to grow the economy and the state. She states that Rossi is out of touch with the values of Washington state. Rossi finish off by wanting to turn this into a state where businesses can grow.

Its' been a heck of a day of state politics. Thanks for reading and see you down the campaign trail.

Undercard #3: Bergeson versus Dorn

Alright here we go!

2:50: For those of you who had 30 seconds in the pool of when the WASL was going to be brought to the fourm, you lost the bet. It was actually about 10 seconds.

2:55: Bergeson is asked about the math fiasco of the last few years and she takes full responsiblity for it and she also take credit for the solutions that developed in the wake of that disaster.

3:00: After the rip roar of the AG's debate, this is a lot tamer. Both candidates believe in testing and that a diploma should mean something. The means and expectations are totally different.

3:05: Now for state financing. Both Terry and Randy both agree that schools need more money. Terry touts the cash she has brought in to schools and the US Chamber report giving Washington an "A" in investment. Randy repeats that the state's paramount duty is to schools. Randy also touts his record in the Legislature to get more funding.

3:10: Time for the candidate to ask questions of each other. Terry first: "How would you keep the promise of the bill you passed in 1993 of accountability?" Randy response: "I was hoping you would ask that question... once we find out what is wrong, we need to change." Terry comes back that Randy didn't answer the question. Dorn asks: "Why has it taken 11 years to get going on vocational education?" Terry responses that it has taken this long to get all the programs on the same plane and have made real progress. "The apprenticeship program pipeline is wide open!"

3:15: Now the question about pay. Terry responses first that brining in top talent is something we will have to eventually address. Randy stated that it is not just math and science teachers, but "quality" teachers who should get additional pay.

3:20: Now we go into Olympia's favorite buzzword - accountability. Bergeson discusses how she has brought accountability to education through the standards set by testing and her efforts at OSPI. Dorn counters that teachers are having troubles because the WASL is restraining them.

3:25: Both Bergeson and Dorn go after "No Child Left Behind." Both agree that it was a horrible idea.

3:35: After a one hour debate;  "With the Governor and the Legislature with the purse strings and creating legislation; why exactly does the OSPI do?" Dorn says he want to depolarize the office. Bergeson loves the "grassroots" nature of the office.

Closing Argument: Randy Dorn wasn’t sure about running for office till on a trip back from Palm Springs. “Randy Dorn: You get what you see.” Bergeson looks at the international educational scene and says that she “is the person to continue education reform.”

Alright, that is all for now. I am going to have an energy drink and a cigarette. Will be back tonight at 6:30 PM for the punch by punch coverage of the main event: Gregoire v. Rossi II.

Undercard #2: Rob McKenna versus John Ladenberg

And we are back. Let's get straight into the debate. Here we go!

1:45: The pace is fast and furious as the candidates throw well crafted lobs at each others. Ladenberg attacks McKenna for lack of results while Rob counters stats and lobs a few at John. Back and forth.

1:50: Oh snap! Ladenberg just called McKenna a publicity hound neglecting his duty as AG. McKenna counters going after how John is a friend of trial lawyers. This is a cracker of a welterweight bout.

1:55: McKenna defends his record on consumer protection. Ladenberg attack McKenna saying, "I am not in  the business to make myself look good... He has issued more press release than indictments." McKenna counters: "John, if you really cared, you would of showed up at one our press conferences!"

2:00: Question of McKenna to Ladenberg; "In your home county of Pierce County, you didn't need even win the primary race. Why is that?"

2:05: Ladenberg turn: "Recently the BIAW was charged... will you decline to address the matters because of conflict of interest?"

2:10: Ladenberg attacks McKenna for not doing a better job investigating "big oil." Ladenberg attacked McKenna for grandstanding: "When you want to search a crack house, you don't throw a press conference." McKenna defends his record.

2:15: I can't keep up with this debate. Too many one liners.

2:20: Now onto the question of the tribal agreement made by the state. Ladenberg discusses his opposition to gambling in the state and fought against the tribes. McKenna states that it is not an attorney's job to get involved in policy.

2:25: A odd question: "Who is you favoriate Attorney General?" McKenna: "Slade Gordon."

2:30: McKenna talks about his task forces taking credit much of the success. Ladenberg says that McKenna is taking credit for what he as a legislator and public official help bring.

Closing arguments: Ladenberg attacks McKenna for a lack of courtroom and other experience as a administrator. Also,discusses his leadership qualities. Say the difference between being a "prosecutor and a politician." McKenna discusses his track record of success with the programs tasked him by the Legislature.

No rest for the weary, we have the OSPI debate up next!

Undercard #1: Goldmark versus Sutherland

To paraphrase Marv Albert, "We are LIIIVVVEEE from Semi-Ah-Moo Resort for today's match up between Sutherland and Goldmark." Actually, to start with it is just Goldmark as Doug is late for the debate. Anyhow, here we go.

11:15: Goldmark starts off discussing his background as a farmer and rancher. Also he goes into how Sutherland's tenure at DNR has been a lawsuit ridden and the current harvest is not sustainable.

11:20: Responding to a question regarding his campaign contributions Goldmark responded: "I do have many contributors, many from environmental community. However, I think it is inappropriate for me to take contributions from an industry that I would have to regulate, unlike my opponent."

11:30: In regards to the December storm, Goldmark said, "I think the criticism, not of the storm, but of the lack of oversight from Department of Natural Resources hydrologist and other scientist caused some of chaos we saw in Lewis County.”

11:45: In regards to mineral exploration on state land. "Some agregate people I have talked to have taken more than 8 years to make a decision. I think is unnaceptible for buisiness have to wait that long for decision." Also, in response to question about wildfires; "I think there is an economy opportunity to protect homes from wildfires by thinning."

We'll be back after lunch with the AG's debate.

Going Local

Now it is time for the local press panel to give us some perspective on the up coming election.

9:50: Denny Heck does his best James Lipton impression introducing the panel of Stu Elway, Deirdre Gregg, and Peter Callaghan. The panel is in total agreement that Washington is Obama's state to lose. Also, the panel agrees that the Sarah Palin effect will not change the way Washington state will go in the national scene.

10:05: Peter Callaghan: "In an inverse of the national scene, Rossi is painting himself as the change candidate while Gregoire is touting values and experience."

10:15: Callaghan regarding the OSPI race: "This race again will be referendum on school reform.”

10:20: Elway: "I have Bergeson slightly down in my poll but there is a huge pool of undecided of 52%." Gregg: "The Attorney General race is still a big advantage for McKenna. Ladenberg is hanging his hat on the BIAW lawsuit."

10:30: Callaghan: "Obama is going to be tired. He has to carry Burner, Gregoire, Goldmark, and everyone else in the state to victory."

10:35: Heck: "With all mail voting, we don't have an election day anymore, but an election month." Callaghan: "There is an interesting trend where a Democratic candidate will have a lead but in recent elections the absentee ballots that come later have trended more conservative. So it is a close race for a Democrat say 3-4 percent, don't call it on election night."

10:40: Elway: "The youth vote is a wild card this year." Gregg: "The economy going sour is having an impact on this election. Not as much as I thought last year."