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July 31, 2008

Washington #3 in U.S. for Business

That's according to Forbes magazine, which today released its "Best States for Business" rankings. Washington jumped two notches this year, up from fifth place last year and 12th place in 2006. Virginia garnered the top spot for the third straight year; Utah earned the second-place ranking.

In its analysis, the writers at Forbes evaluated the states based on six areas:

  • Business costs  - an index based on the cost of labor, energy and taxes. Washington's rank: 28
  • Labor rank - a measure of educational attainment, net migration and projected population growth. Washington's rank: 2
  • Regulatory environment  - a measure of the regulatory and tort climate, incentives and transportation and bond ratings. Washington's rank: 6
  • Economic climate - reflects job, income and gross state product growth as well as unemployment and the presence of "big companies". Washington's rank: 7
  • Growth prospects -projected job, income and gross state product growth, as well as business openings/closings and venture capital investments. Washington's rank: 2
  • Quality of life - indexing of schools, health, crime, cost of living and poverty rates. Washington's rank: 25.

Today's announcement comes as good news, particularly given the current economic climate. To be considered one of the top three states in the nation for business is affirming and underscores the value -- and importance -- of keeping our sights set on competitiveness.

AWB intends to dig further into the Forbes special report. More on this topic again soon... 

July 29, 2008

Outlook Sours for "Checkbook Voters"

The mood is apparently worsening around America's kitchen tables when it comes to budgets and the national economy.

A new Harris poll finds that seven in 10 Americans (71%) rate the economic policies of the national government as bad while 13 percent rate them as good. Almost half of U.S. adults polled (48%) say their     household’s financial condition has worsened since last year at this time, while three in 10 (31%) say     it has improved and just over one in five (22%) say it has remained the     same. This is slightly worse than last month when one-third (34%) said their     household’s financial condition had improved compared to a year ago while     just under half (47%) said it had worsened.

The online survey was conducted between July 3-11.

Romney Care is "Blowing Gaskets" in the Massachusetts Budget: Lawmakers Need to "Do the Math" Before Connecting Washington to "The Connector!"

As a follow-up to my blog posting on July 16 regarding the cost of Massachusetts new "Connector" government health care mandate, the Wall Street Journal published an insightful editorial today.  Here are some key points:

  1. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) wheeled out a new $129 million tax plan to make up for the revenue shortfall and "budget gaskets are blowing out everywhere!"  The Governor has already bumped up this year's spending to $869 million, $144 million over its original estimate.
  2. Most of the growth in health care costs in Massachusetts "Connector" coverage has come from "Commonwealth Care."  This is subsidized insurance to those under 300% of the poverty level or family of four income under $63,000 a year.

From the WSJ Editorial:  "This is a textbook example of how business taxes evolve into "pay or pay," (Emphasis added) the first recourse of state-funded health systems.  Politicians love levies on business because they disguise the overall bill from voters.  But such taxes are merely passed along to workers in the form of reduced take-home pay, since all health costs are part of compensation."

In short, there is no free lunch.  As the mechanic in the FRAM oil filter television commercial points out:  "You can either pay me now or pay me later."  The point is when the engine in your car blows out because you haven't budgeted the costs of regular maintenance, the price tag for a major overhaul is so much more expensive. Try multiplying it by billions and with all of the other programs state legislators and members of Congress want to fund, you have to wonder where the money will come from and how much families and employers can afford!

Do the Math before acting.

Don C. Brunell, President (DonB@awb.org)

July 28, 2008

Who Really Pays for Paid Sick Leave?

Interesting post on US News's Money & Business blog on the push around the country for mandated paid sick leave days -- and with a twist at the end. 

Following the Money

The federal government has completed its mail out of those economic stimulus checks to more than 130 million households, but testimony given before Congress last week by the National Retail Federation suggests the cash didn't make it past the local grocery store or gas station: According to this story

"Results are better than they would have been if Congress had not enacted the tax rebates," an executive from the National Retail Federation told a congressional hearing. "But consumer spending remains subdued because of the stresses of declining home values, escalating fuel and food costs, increasing unemployment and weak financial markets. We believe that a compelling case can be made for providing additional economic stimulus legislation."

Polling information by the NRF suggests that consumers who received their rebate checks spent 42.9% of it, "but that nearly half of the money spent had gone to gasoline (9.7%) or necessities such as groceries (10.4%)." Clothing and apparel, the next-largest category, got a scant 3.3% of the money. Survey respondents said 25.2% of their checks went to pay off debt and 17.1% went into savings.

Sales Tax Slide Outside Seattle, TriCities and Yakima

According to Washington CEO magazine in a Sunday posting on its website, state sales taxes showed a dramatic slow-down during the first quarter of 2008 and were a scant 1.4% higher than the first quarter of 2007.  That compares to collections which were 10.3% higher in the first quarters of 2005 and 2006.

King County, which accounts for 40% of the state's sales tax collections, showed a 5.5% growth during the first quarter of this year.  However, outside Seattle, Pierce (1.7%), Snohomish (2.3%) and Spokane (2.6%) all showed declines.   Insider King County, Dept. of Revenue numbers show it was a mixed bag.  Bellevue was up 1.3% and Redmond by 12.1%.  Kirkland was down by (13.7%).

The economic oasis in the state is in the farm belt which includes the TriCities and Yakima.  Franklin County reported collections up by 16.2%, Benton County up by 8.2% and Yakima was up by 7.2%.

CEO concludes: "Washington's economic growth has largely stalled; and state and local governments will have lots of belt-tightening to do during the next budget cycles."

We agree.  The worst approach to spurring job growth and the economy would be to increase state and local taxes and fees next year to "tax and spend our way back to prosperity."  If lawmakers, the governor and local leaders follow that path, it will be a long, long wait for good times to return.   

In addition to belt tightening, they need to do two additional things:

    1. Look at the cumulative impact of all federal, state and local taxes and fees to see what it does to the private sector and its ability to create and retain jobs and businesses in Washington state; and,
    2. Not impose additional new programs and their associated costs which will only add to the burden.  They need to look at people and businesses as hikers with an already heavy backpack and climbing a steep wilderness trail.  Even the slightest increase could stop the climb toward economic recovery and our ability to compete.

Hopefully, they will "Do the Math" carefully before they act.  Meanwhile, voters ought to look carefully at the candidates' plans to deal with the growing state and local revenue shortfalls. Voters need to ask the tough questions of candidates before they vote and those running for office would be wise to remember Bill Clinton's famous slogan:  "It's the ECONOMY......!"

Don C. Brunell, President (DonB@awb.org)

July 25, 2008

McCain on Health Care

In my last post, I looked at Barack Obama's ideas about health care. Now it's time to shift the spotlight to the health care plan offered by John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. It could not be more different than Obama's.

Bob Laszewski, president of Health Policy and Strategy Associates, a health care policy and marketplace consulting firm, gives a good synopsis of McCain's health care prescription:

....change the health insurance focus from relying on the employer to relying on individual responsibility and a structure that enables the individual to build their own health care security, often with an increase in wages to replace the health insurance benefit, and not having to rely upon the generosity of one employer or another to provide a fixed and comprehensive plan....

Republicans are frequently called "conservative" -- whatever that overused and abused label means -- but McCain's plan is anything but conservative, cautious or deferential to the status quo. Shifting responsibility from the employer to the individual is, indeed, a sea change in the way the U.S. health care system generally operates, although some elements of this approach already exist on a more limited basis, including Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).

McCain's focus is on reducing costs that make health insurance so expensive that it is often out of the reach of individuals and employers, not to mention the government, which remains responsible for providing benefits for seniors and a safety net for the poor. In McCain's own words:

We are approaching a 'perfect storm' of problems that if not addressed by the next president will cause our health care system to implode.

So how would McCain do this? According to Laszewski:

....McCain would.... attempt to do away with many of the state benefit mandates that are often pointed to as a cause of higher health insurance costs by giving consumers a federal policy option. Some states are estimated to add as much as 30% to the cost of a policy by loading on the mandates.

McCain would create one national health insurance policy form, an innovation that would save insurance providers the necessity of complying with insurance regulations in 50 states and make the non-medical expense (overhead) portions of health insurance policies more efficient.

In addition to the state rules, there would be an optional federal health insurance regime. McCain would thus create a market where existing state products would compete with national health insurance products. Thus the individual insurance market, which has seriously declined in recent years, would find itself re-energized.

From McCain's campaign:

An important part of [McCain's] plan is to use competition to improve the quality of health insurance with greater variety to match people's needs, lower prices, and portability. Families should be able to purchase health insurance nationwide, across state lines.

....While still having the option of employer-based coverage, every family will receive a direct refundable tax credit -- effectively cash -- of $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to offset the cost of insurance. Families will be able to choose the insurance provider that suits them best and the money would be sent directly to the insurance provider. Those obtaining innovative insurance that costs less than the credit can deposit the remainder in expanded Health Savings Accounts.

Additionally, McCain would push for greater insurance portability for people who change jobs, and would encourage and expand the benefits of HSAs.

Economist John Goodman gives the McCain plan a rave review for several reasons, including the fact that all Americans -- regardless of income or job status -- would receive equal treatment under the plan. In addition, he praises the plan's end to discrimination against people who must buy their own health insurance and its cost cutting potential. Quoting Goodman:

The McCain plan encourages all Americans to control costs. The McCain tax credit subsidizes the core insurance that everyone should have. It does not subsidize all the bells and whistles, as the current system does. Since employees and their employers will be paying for additional coverage with after-tax dollars, everyone will have an incentive to compare the value of extra health benefits to the value of other things money can buy.

Without a doubt, this is an interesting approach to health care. Although we would like to see greater details before the November election, McCain's plan does represent creative, out-of-the-box thinking on some of the most vexing problems in the U.S. health care system. Still the question remains: Will the voting public be willing to accept the plan's groundbreaking shift from employer-based health insurance to a revitalized individual market a chance?

Stay tuned.

Civil Rights and Union Membership

Dick Davis draws my attention this morning to an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle proposing that union membership be added to the federal Civil Rights Act as a protected class in employment.  These "six little words" -- prohibiting discrimination in employment "on the basis of union membership" -- would, the author proposes, allow workers to "defend themselves" against "union-busting thugs."  How?  By filing lawsuits, of course.

But is the proposal -- which if enacted, might go by its short title, the "Labor Lawyers' Full Employment Act" -- entirely without merit?  Query whether the modest addition of just another ten words -- "or the refusal to join or financially support a union" would make it a fair compromise?

(Cross-posted at WashACE.com)

Seattle PI Announces Supreme Court Endorsements

As one would expect, the Seattle PI today endorses the three incumbents (Charles Johnson, Mary Fairhurst, Debra Stephens) up for re-election (or in Stephens' case, election) to the Washington Supreme Court this fall.  As a point of personal privilege (and as an alumnus of his chambers), I would note the editorial's vastly more interesting comments thread which starts off with a reader's suggestion that "[w]e are in bad need of Richard Sanders clones" on the high court.

AWB has previously announced its endorsement of Justice Charles Johnson for re-election, but did not take a position in either of the other races, partly for reasons that will become apparent when the next edition of our Judicial Scorecard comes out in the next Washington Business magazine.

More Math Ahead for WA High School Graduates

That's the end result of a two-day meeting the State Board of Education concluded in Vancouver yesterday.

Rules adopted by the board Thursday would require all high school students to pass algebra II (or classes that cover the same material) to graduate, starting with the class of 2013 (this year's eighth-graders). AWB's education policy expert, Donna Steward, attended the meeting, having previously provided written testimony in favor of the change. AWB believes the addition of more math will further help ready students for success in today's workplace and college.

The board also agreed -- in principle -- to increase and phase in the additional graduation credit requirements by 2016, with the caveat that it won't raise the credit count without funding from the Legislature. The new proposal, known as the Meaningful High School Diploma or "Core 24," raises the state's minimum high school gradation requirements from 19 to 24. (Most school districts already require more than the state's minimum to graduate.) The algebra II adoption is the first in a series of changes the board hopes to make, strengthening the core academic classes required of Washington's high school graduates. Additional changes under the board's Core 24 plan would:

  • Add an extra credit of English (up from 3 to 4)
  • Add a credit of math (up from 2 to 3)
  • Add a credit of science (up from 2 to 3)
  • Add a half-credit of social studies (up from 2.5 to 3)

Students would also be required to complete two credits in both art and health and fitness. The remaining seven credits needed to complete the Core 24  would depend on one of the three pathways students would select (college, career or a combination). Increasing the overall required number of credits will decrease the number of electives available to students, in an effort to increase the rigor of student schedules.

It's worth noting this change in credit requirements is the state's first since 1985. (And if you haven't checked out the Partnership for Learning's campaign on this issue, click here.) You can read more about Core 24 here, as well. AWB's Donna Steward testified in favor of the change in credits. 

Media coverage of this issue is in today's Seattle Times, P-I and News Tribune/Columbian.

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